by Kyong Mazzaro

The connections between economic grievances and conflict have been widely studied. Today, there is ample evidence that economic crises and low-income levels can increase the risk of civil conflict. However, recent developments indicate that the ways income levels are assessed and conceptualized can significantly affect the way this relationship is understood.

Take the case of income inequality: although there is evidence that wealth is often associated with lower levels of conflict, it has also been found that the way income is distributed can be an important cause of rebellion. A recent study found that there is higher risk of civil conflict in countries that are wealthy when a significant share of the population is excluded from benefitting from it. However, the findings of this study were limited to a specific type of inequality, based on the exclusion resulting from ethnic differences. This raises the question of whether or not class differences and other elements associated with inequality can predict rebellion.

In an attempt to investigate this, other researchers examined the relation between conflict and inequality in cases of civil rebellions that transcended ethnic boundaries. They examined 77 popular rebellions in the period between 1961-2009 taking into account both income and education inequalities.  This study found that income and education inequalities significantly impact the onset of civil rebellions, but more importantly that it can be a better predictor of internal conflict than income level.

These findings suggest the limitations of income level and economic growth for predicting conflict, as well as the need to further explore the role of inequality and its consequences for civil strife.