by Taly Harel-Marian

As the US presidential elections are fast approaching, at a time when debates and polls take center stage, it is both relevant and interesting to examine the phenomena known as “rally round the flag”. When people are feeling threatened or challenged by an outside enemy, they tend to provide increased support for their leaders and government. It is not uncommon to hear that leaders take advantage of (or even create) conflicts with other countries to distract the public from domestic problems. A recent example might be the way the Israeli prime minister used a potential attack on Iran as a distraction for the Israeli public away from financial domestic concerns and protests. Whether or not Benjamin Netanyahu raised the issue of a nuclear Iran due to real concerns or just as a tool of gaining more support from the Israeli citizens – it is clear that the rally effect is real.

A recent study examined the way the trust we have in our leaders can effects public approval ratings (i.e., rallying). More specifically, if levels of political trust are high, the extent of the rally should increase in the context of an outside conflict. On the other hand, low levels of trust should decrease the size and magnitude of a rally. Chatagnier’s recent analysis reveals that trust in government plays a large role in determining the occurrence and size of rallies round the flag: “The propensity of an individual who did not vote for the president to rally is significantly mediated by that individual’s level of trust in government. More trusting non-supporters are more likely to rally than are cynical non-supporters.”

This has implications on the way we perceive leaders who initiate multiple conflicts, bringing into question their real motives and agendas. Leaders who seek to improve their domestic status by generating or emphasizing international conflict should rethink their strategy. It seems that it all depends on the level of public trust in their leadership as a prerequisite rather than an outcome.