by Kyong Mazzaro

Research on economic development has long documented the lower propensity of high-income countries to experience conflict. This argument is supported by a traditional body of research that has closely studied the correlation between civil wars and national income averages - in other words, studies which primarily focused on the implications of macroeconomic indicators such as GDP for growth, GDP per capita for income, and the Gini Coeficient for inequality for conflict trends. However, the specific locations where conflicts emerge do not always have the socio-economic characteristics of the country as a whole. This raises the question of whether local economic conditions and inequality can cause the outbreak of conflict and violence, even in wealthy nations.

A recent study published in the Journal of Conflict Resolution that addressed the impact of regional income inequality on the outbreak of conflict found that civil conflicts are more likely to erupt in areas with low absolute income, even in countries with a high GDP per capita.

Using spatially disaggregated data to identify the locations around the world of high conflict, and identifying the geographical income variation within countries during the decade of 1991-2000, researchers found evidence that local inequality, or the economic component of relative deprivation, increases the risk of conflict. They also found that pockets of wealth in poor states are particularly likely to witness violent outbreaks.

The results of this study highlight the importance of local information in the study of conflict and debunk the assumption that rich countries are exempt from facing internal conflicts related to inequality. The concept of regional income inequality could help us understand conflict motivations beyond the ethno-political argument, and provide a strong case for peacebuilding strategies that address inequality.