By Alex Charlesworth Despite an increase in the rate of agreements reached to end civil wars over the last 20 years, sustainable peace is not always a guaranteed outcome of the peace process. This was the reality faced by Colombia in 2016 when an agreement reached between the government and rebel group FARC to end four years of negotiations and nearly 50-years of civil war was rejected by public vote. What are the factors inhibiting sustainable peace for countries hoping to end civil war? Recent research suggests the influence of civilian attitudes in legitimizing a regime’s efforts to end conflict may provide valuable insight.
Using 2014 data from the LAPOP AmericasBarmometer survey, researchers examined the extent to which the attitudes of Colombian nationals toward the peace process were influenced by their political preferences, exposure to conflict and individual demographics. Research findings demonstrated that political preference was by far the most critical determinant of Colombian attitudes towards the peace talks with the FARC. Respondents who identified with right-wing party, the Centro Democrático, were less likely to support the peace process. This makes sense given the emphasis of the Centro Democrático platform regarding the promotion of a military victory over the FARC instead of a negotiated settlement.
Additionally, level of education, religion and rural residency were found to have some bearing. For example, Colombians with more years of education, who live in urban areas, and who identify as Catholic were at least somewhat less supportive of peace talks than their counterparts, although further research is needed to better understand these results. Surprisingly, the self-reported conflict experiences of respondents did not appear to shape their attitudes toward negotiations. These findings are particularly interesting as the characteristics of the respondents who were skeptical of the peace process in the 2014 survey closely compare with those who voted against the 2016 peace agreement. These findings suggest the stability of civilian attitudes over time.
What does this mean for practitioners? Identifying the patterns of civilian support, or lack thereof, for the peace process can help ensure all groups are engaged. Awareness of the perceptions of the peace process may help policy makers and peace builders to proactively identify solutions to concerns shared by certain members of society and ultimately contribute to more lasting peace.
Liendo, N., & Braithwaite, J.M. (2018). Determinants of Colombian attitudes toward the peace process. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 35(6), 622-636.
Photo Credit: AlCortés. This work is licensed under a Attribution 2.0 Generic License (CC BY 2.0)

Categories: Blog, Featured, Intergroup Conflict, Intra / Inter-group Conflict, Peace

Published February 20, 2019